Simulation at scale: how TNPA standardized capacity planning

As infrastructure systems grow more complex, traditional capacity planning tools like spreadsheets fall short. Forward-thinking organizations are turning to capacity planning simulation to manage processes dynamically, collaboratively, and at scale.

In this blog post, discover how simulation has transformed infrastructure planning for the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) of South Africa, why outdated tools can’t keep up, and how AnyLogic empowers teams to move from static analysis to dynamic, scenario-based planning. See how Bigen Group worked with TNPA to build a simulation ecosystem, reshaping the future of port operations.

Contents:

1. The traditional approach: capacity planning tools used by TNPA
2. A new approach: a complete system solution for strategic planning
3. Why AnyLogic?
4. A custom-created port library
5. Final thoughts

The traditional approach: capacity planning tools used by TNPA

For years, the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA), a government corporation in South Africa, relied on traditional capacity planning tools such as spreadsheets and static models to estimate port capacity.

These tools were adequate for isolated calculations, like berth utilization or gate throughput, but they failed to capture the true dynamics of port operations. Marine traffic, landside transportation, terminal handling, and storage were all assessed independently.

TNPA aimed to move away from this outdated approach and find a new way to analyze future demand and predict operational impacts across all eight ports in the country.

A new approach: a complete system solution for strategic planning

Forward-looking organizations increasingly embed simulation and capacity planning tools into their core business processes. This enables them to navigate complexity and uncertainty, test scenarios without risk, and quantify performance through key metrics. Its visual output also improves communication, turning data into clear, actionable insights.

Instead of developing standalone models, businesses build simulation ecosystems that are reusable, modular, and always up-to-date. This represents the shift from one-off models to continuous usage of simulation modeling.

The Bigen Group, working with TNPA, opted to model the entire port ecosystem: vessels, tugs, terminals, cranes, trucks, trains, and cargo flows. The company moved beyond fragmented planning by simulating the operational landscape across all commercial ports.

Such a comprehensive simulation ecosystem made it possible to:

• Build consistent models across all ports using common logic.
• Update data and run simulations dynamically, without the need to rebuild models.
• Empower internal users to run scenarios, even without technical expertise.

The new ecosystem is powered by an integrated architecture that connects users, models, and data. At the center of this setup is the AnyLogic simulation model, supported by a centralized SQL database and a web-based interface that makes the system accessible across the organization.

The SQL database serves as the source for all input data, including demand forecasts, vessel types, terminal layouts, and configuration parameters. Structuring data in a unified format ensures consistency across all ports and scenarios. While the web portal acts as a user-friendly front end, where users across the organization can configure scenarios, trigger simulations, and interpret the results without technical modeling skills.

What distinguishes this new approach is that capacity planning simulation supports both daily operational decisions and long-term planning over a 30-year horizon.

The models that have been developed allow users to:

• Assess short- and long-term infrastructure needs.
• Evaluate new cargo types or route changes.
• Test operational strategies such as dual-loading or vessel rerouting.
• Visualize impacts before committing to capital investment.

Why AnyLogic?

Choosing the right simulation platform is critical, especially when integrating simulation into an organization’s long-term planning processes. For TNPA and many other transportation operators, AnyLogic stands out as the ideal platform to support a scalable, standardized simulation ecosystem because:

1. It can run complex simulation models, making it a natural fit for capacity planning simulation.
2. It supports exporting one or multiple models as standalone Java applications. This enables seamless integration with custom execution engines.
3. It offers rich learning resources and a strong community of users across various industries.
4. It has been designed with enterprise use in mind, offering flexible licensing and collaborative model management.
5. Its support for the creation and use of custom libraries allows teams to standardize logic, accelerate development, and ensure consistency across models.

A custom-created port library

One of the project's most impactful parts was the creation of the Port library, a custom AnyLogic library designed to boost the reusability and flexibility of simulation models.

This library includes standard elements for:

• Marine traffic and vessel behavior.
• Terminal and cargo handling operations.
• Resource allocation and berth management.
• Output metrics and KPI visualization.

By separating layout from logic, the same base model could be applied to different ports and time horizons. This resulted in faster model development, easier maintenance, and greater long-term consistency.

The Port library enabled the Bigen Group to build and deploy models for all eight ports in under 12 months. This would not have been possible without standardization and the creation of a custom library.

This entire project was presented at the AnyLogic Conference 2024, illustrating how simulation can overcome the limitations of traditional capacity planning tools. Watch the video below for a walkthrough of the models, key findings, and practical takeaways.

Final thoughts: simulation is key for smart infrastructure

TNPA’s journey highlights a decisive shift towards a robust, organization-wide simulation platform. By building reusable models, enabling non-technical access, and embedding simulation into strategic workflows, Bigen Group and TNPA redefined capacity planning.

The future of capacity planning relies on tools that reflect real-world complexity and allow organizations to visualize, test, and decide before committing resources.

With platforms like AnyLogic, simulation can power more thoughtful planning, faster decisions, and more resilient systems.

Download AnyLogic for free today and start building your simulation-driven future.

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