Electrification of commercial, municipal, and personal vehicle fleets is happening now and quickly. In less than three years, the City of London and Norway target phasing out internal combustion vehicle sales. By 2030, a significant proportion of the world plans the same. Commercial and public organizations will require insight and informed planning to smoothly navigate this time of significant change and make the most of its opportunities.
Rapid change in the automotive industry
At the recent 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, a coalition of government and global car industry leaders stated their commitment to 100% zero-emission new car, van, and HGV sales by 2040 in order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Bloomberg’s analysis [PDF] of the commitments reveals that a third of the global auto market will be zero-emission by 2035 and that sales already increased 80% in 2021 to 5.6 million units, over 7% of global sales.
The changes in the automotive sector caused by the shift to zero-emission vehicles are also having wider consequences. In their article on why the automotive future is electric, McKinsey go beyond recognizing the inevitability of e-mobility. They point to electrification's consequential disruption of other sectors, such as for supply chains, the energy sector, and society. The key to realizing the opportunities of this change, they say, will be in using innovative technology and properly guiding the transformation.
How to manage the transition to electric vehicle fleets
Insight and planning are crucial factors in managing change. The more metrics and data available for analysis, the more informed decision making becomes. Simulation modeling is an important technology for analyzing existing systems and forecasting future behavior, making it an ideal decision support tool for the automotive industry.
AnyLogic is a multimethod simulation modeling tool for combining agent-based, discrete event, and system dynamics modeling. This multimethod capability means it is possible to seamlessly capture macro trends, fine details, and unseen interconnections.
Many organizations are already using AnyLogic to research and develop solutions related to electric automotive vehicles. Here we have gathered various case studies and research:
- Modeling of municipal electric vehicle fleets — SimPlan
- Electric vehicle transportation and charging network analysis — General Electric
- Electric delivery vehicle route optimization — EDF
- Electric vehicles modeling and simulations for long-haul logistics — D.S. Utomo, A. Gripton, P. Greening
- Modeling home grocery delivery using electric vehicles and transport network analysis — D. S. Utomo, A. Gripton, P. Greening
- Electric vehicle driver simulation using agent-based modeling — Beaudry Kock, Recargo, Inc.
Beyond issues related to vehicles and their routing, simulation modeling provides a way to look at the effect of vehicle electrification on regional economies, as investigated by Katalevsky, of Skoltech, and Gareev, of RANEPA, in their paper on the development of electric road transport [PDF].
In other research, Sjors Hijgenaar, of CGI Consulting, looked at how electric vehicles will drive the transition to smart power grids.
The possibilities for analyzing the trend of vehicle electrification are wide and varied with simulation modeling. AnyLogic Cloud hosts numerous simulation models to try yourself, such as the Park and Charge model below, and the many examples (Set 1, Set 2) from Naud Loomans and Peter Hoegeveen of ZEnMo simulations.