Agent-based simulation of the software development process: a case study at AVL Bojan Spasic, Bhakti S. S. Onggo, WSC-2012, Berlin

Software development projects are difficult to manage due to the high uncertainty in their various phases. Simulation is one of the tools that has been used to help software project managers produce project plans. Research into software process simulation modeling (SPSM) shows the dominance of discrete-event simulation and system dynamics. This paper supports the use of ABS in SPSM. We propose a practical effort function to estimate developers’ behavior. The other contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how the ABS model can be developed, calibrated and validated using data readily available to many software development companies/departments. This paper focuses on the construction phase of a tailored Rational Unified Process used in a geographically distributed software development department at AVL. The results look promising but more work needs to be done to include ABS into one of the mainstream simulation paradigms in SPSM
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Using a scalable simulation model to evaluate the performance of production system segmentation in a combined MRP and Kanban system Thomas Felberbauer, Klaus Altendorfer, Alexander Hübl, WSC-2012, Berlin

In this paper two different possible machine allocation policies are studied for a production system consisting of MRP and kanban controlled materials. Performance measures are inventory costs, backorder costs and service level. In policy one, the production system is segmented into one segment for MRP planned materials and one for kanban controlled materials. Policy two implements common machine groups for both kinds of materials. A scalable production planning simulation model is applied which is set up by parameterization of the respective database without any model implementation work. For high set-up times and low number of items, we find that whenever utilization of the production system is high, the production system segmentation policy is preferable. However, for medium and low utilization values common machine groups perform best in all scenarios. The scalable simulation model for different kinds of production systems contributes to further research in this field
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A simulation study of the effect of mosque design on egress times Khaled Nassar, Ahmed Bayyoumi, WSC-2012, Berlin

The Mosque prayer hall is perhaps the only architectural space designed for a large number of floorseated occupants. A critical issue in the design of mosques is determining the number and configuration of exit locations. This paper describes a discrete-event simulation model developed to assess the effect of mosque prayer hall configuration on the egress times of the occupants. The simulation model takes into consideration the behavioral aspects of the mosque occupants such as shoe placement and pickup, after prayer lingering, late egress of front rows, after prayers, and congregations inside and outside the mosque. Most of the various exit configurations possible in mosque design are modeled and assessed for total egress time as well as flow rates. It is shown that one-sided exit location out performs all other configurations. The study presents the first such analysis of mosque egress and the results should of great interest to architects and researchers alike
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Complex agent interactions in operational simulations for aerospace design Benjamin Schumann, James Scanlan, Hans Fangohr, WSC-2012, Berlin

Product complexity in the aerospace industry has grown fast while design procedures and techniques did not keep pace. Product life cycle implications are largely neglected during the early design phase. Also, aerospace designers fail to optimize products for the intended operational environment. This study shows how a design, simulated within its anticipated operational environment, can inform about critical design parameters, thereby creating a more targeted design improving the chance of commercial success. An agent-based operational simulation for civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicles conducting maritime Search-andRescue missions is used to design and optimize aircrafts. Agent interactions with their environment over the product life-cycle are shown to lead to unexpected model outputs. Unique insights into the optimal design are gained by analysis of the operational performance of the aircraft within its simulated environment
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Hybrid simulation with loosely coupled system dynamics and agent-based models for prospective health technology assessments Anatoli Djanatliev, Reinhard German, Peter Kolominsky-Rabas, Bernd M. Hofmann, WSC-2012, Berlin

Due to the ageing of the world population, the demand for technology innovations in healthcare is growing rapidly. All stakeholders (e.g., patients, healthcare providers and health industry) can take profit of innovative products, but the development degenerates often into a time consuming and cost-intensive process. Prospective Health Technology Assessment (ProHTA) is a new approach that combines the knowledge of an interdisciplinary team and uses simulation techniques to indicate the effects of new innovations early before the expensive and risky development phase begins. In this paper, we describe an approach with loosely coupled system dynamics and agent-based models within a hybrid simulation environment for ProHTA as well as a use-case scenario with an innovative stroke technology
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The service productivity learning cockpit – a business-intelligence tool for service enterprises Prof. Dr. Torsten Eymann, Universität Bayreuth, Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik

Computer simulation is a way to imitate business processes based on reality. Due to the fact that the environment in hospitals is highly dynamic with local autonomy of stakeholders participating in the business processes, we found an agent–based modeling and simulation (ABMS) approach to be most suitable and it is therefore applied in this context. From an inception to a running simulation, followed by an analysis of the output, we need to keep in mind our user’s physical problem as well as their capability of digesting the results. An interface between a computer modeler/programmer’s deliverable and a user like a hospital manager who learns from the simulated behavior of physical reality, is a visualization tool. We call this tool a “Learning Cockpit” (LC). Although a manager has experience in managing their business and they use personal qualities to positively drive their organization in challenging business environments, a simulation provides them additional support in decision process. With the help of simulation, they should be able to clearly and concisely grasp the information about the current operations, the resources involved and the inherent costs to get an output. They should be able to measure the performance of the current setup, and if necessary, make some changes and bring more value to the organization
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Saving and Restoring Anylogic 6 Model Snapshot

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A multi-structural framework for adaptive supply chain planning Ivanov D.A., Sokolov B., Kaeschel J., European Journal of Operational Research, 2009

A trend in up-to-date developments in supply chain management (SCM) is to make supply chains more agile, flexible, and responsive. In supply chains, different structures (functional, organizational, informational, financial etc.) are (re)formed. These structures interrelate with each other and change in dynamics. The paper introduces a new conceptual framework for multistructural planning and operations of adaptive supply chains with structure dynamics considerations. We elaborate a vision of adaptive supply chain management (A-SCM), a new dynamic model and tools for the planning and control of adaptive supply chains. SCM is addressed from perspectives of execution dynamics under uncertainty. Supply chains are modelled in terms of dynamic multi-structural macro-states, based on simultaneous consideration of the management as a function of both states and structures. The research approach is theoretically based on the combined application of control theory, operations research, and agent-based modelling. The findings suggest constructive ways to implement multi-structural supply chain management and to transit from a “one-way” partial optimization to the feedbackbased, closed-loop adaptive supply chain optimization and execution management for value chain adaptability, stability and crisis-resistance. The proposed methodology enhances managerial insight into advanced supply chain management
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Supply chain multi-structural (re)-design Ivanov D.A., International Journal of Integrated Supply Management, No. 5(1), 19-37, 2009

In the framework of supply chain (re)- design (SCD), different structures (functional, organizational, informational, etc.) are (re)- formed. These structures are interrelated and change in their dynamics. How is it possible to avoid structural incoherency and consistency and to achieve comprehensiveness by (re)- designing supply chains? This paper introduces a new approach to simultaneous multi-structural SCD with structure dynamics considerations. We elaborate a new conceptual model and propose new tools for multi-structural SCD – multi-structural macro-states and dynamical alternative multi-graphs. The research approach is theoretically based on the combined application of operations research, agent-based modelling, and control theory. The results show the multi-structural and interdisciplinary treatment allows comprehensive and realistic SCD problem formulation and solution. We emphasize the flexibility of the proposed approach and optimization-supported simulation. The proposed methodology enhances managerial insight into supply chains at the strategic and tactical levels and serves to assist decision-makers in SCD
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The aero-engine value chain under future business environments David Buxton, Richard Farr, Bart Maccarthy. MITIP2006, 11-12 September, Budapest

Agent-based modelling is gaining popularity  for investigating the behaviour of complex systems involving interactions of many players or agents. In this paper an agent-based simulation modelling technique is applied to understand the long term implications of strategy decisions for an aerospace value chain. The industry has unique elements including new business models, high levels of collaboration, long product lifecycles and long periods before positive paybacks are realised. Forecasting market conditions over this long term lifespan is inherently problematic and adds  further complexity when devising a strategy. The model described includes all the major players and entities in the value chain and their interactions. Illustrative results are presented to demonstrate how the simulation approach can be used to evaluate strategy and policy decisions and their operational implications over the long term
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