Development of an Agent-Based Model for the Secondary Threat Resulting from a Ballistic Impact Event Matthew J. Bova, Frank W. Ciarallo, Raymond R. Hill

The process by which a high-velocity impact event leads to fire ignition onboard military vehicles is complex, influenced by the interaction of heated debris fragments and fuel spurting from ruptured tanks. An assessment of the risk of such a fire begins with a complete characterization of the secondary threat resulting from the impact, including debris fragment sizes, states of motion, and thermal properties. In the aircraft survivability community, there is a need for an analytical tool to model this complete threat.
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Comparison between Individual-based and Aggregate Models in the context of Tuberculosis Transmission Tian, Y. and Osgood, N., Proceedings, The 29 th International conference of the System Dynamics Society. July 2011, Washington, D.C.

The desire to better understand the transmission of infectious disease in the real world has motivated the representation of epidemic diffusion in the context of quantitative simulation. In recent decades, both individual-based (such as Agent-Based) models and aggregate models (such as System Dynamics) are widely used in epidemiological modeling. This paper compares the difference between system dynamics models and agent-based models in the context of Tuberculosis (TB) transmission, considering smoking as a risk factor.
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Representing Progression and Interactions of Comorbidities in Aggregate and Individual-Based Systems Models Osgood, N. Proceedings, The 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2009, Albuquerque

Healthcare simulation models have attracted significant offered important insights in to health policy selection. More complete accounting for the cost and health implications of upstream interventions is hindered by the need to consider impact on, and interactions between, multiple comorbidities. Within this paper, we explore several distinct approaches for representing comorbidities, some of them at the aggregate level, and some of them at the individual level. All of these representations have the virtue of being declarative, in that they allow the user to focus on what is to be characterized, rather than how it is to be implemented. Our exploration suggests that while several aggregate representations of comorbidities are possible, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings, ranging from low fidelity to combinatorial blowup. While individual-level representations impose a heavy performance load, greater difficulties in calibration and less rapid analysis, such representations do offer greater transparency, modifiability, scalability, and modularity, and ease of representing transmission and influence networks. With much to recommend each approach, further research is needed to shed additional light on the tradeoffs and identify situations where one representation is preferable to another.
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Logistics Simulation and Optimization for Managing Disaster Responses F. Barahona, M. Ettl, M. Petrik, P.M. Rimshnick, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

Catastrophic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes or floods require emergency responders to rapidly distribute emergency relief supplies to protect the health and lives of victims. In this paper we develop a simulation and optimization framework for managing the logistics of distributing relief supplies in a multi-tier supply network. The simulation model captures optimized stocking of relief supplies, distribution operations at federal or state-operated staging facilities, demand uncertainty, and the dynamic progression of disaster response operations. We apply robust optimization techniques to develop optimized stocking policies and dispatch of relief supplies between staging facilities and points of distribution. The simulation framework accommodates a wide range of disaster scenarios and stressors, and helps assess the efficacy of response plans and policies for better disaster response.
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Agent-Based Simulation for Dual Toll Pricing of Hazardous Material Transportation Sojung Kim, Santosh Mungle, Young-Jun Son, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

A dual toll pricing is a conceptual policy in which policy maker imposes toll on both hazardous materials (hazmat) vehicles as well as regular vehicles for using populated road segments to mitigate a risk of hazmat transportation. It intends to separate the hazmat traffic flow from the regular traffic flow via controlling the dual toll. In order to design the dual toll pricing policy on a highly realistic road network environment and detailed human behaviors, an extended Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) framework is employed to mimic human decision behaviors in great detail. The proposed approach is implemented in AnyLogic agent based simulation software with using a traffic data of Albany, NY. Also, search algorithms in OptQuest are used to determine the optimum dual toll pricing policy which results in the minimum risk and travel cost based on the simulation results. The result reveals the effectiveness of the proposed approach in devising a reli-able policy under the realistic road network conditions.
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Agent-Based Simulation of a Tuberculosis Epidemic Parastu Kasaie, David W. Dowdy, W. David Kelton, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

We propose an epidemic agent-based simulation model for disease (TB) transmission dynamics study and to find out the role of various contact networks. Our model simulates the TB epidemic course across a single population and uses a hierarchical network of contacts in three levels, typical to the transmission of airborne diseases (Mossong et al. 2005). Parameters are chosen from the literature, and the model is calibrated to a setting of high TB incidence. We use our model to study the transmission dynamics at an individual level with regard to the timing and distribution of secondary infections from a single source. The average time for disease diffusion to reach 50% of infections at an individual level is estimated, and the timing patterns are compared among different networks. We perform sensitivity analysis of results with regard to multiple parameter values, and discuss the implications for TB control policy.
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A Hybrid Simulation Model for Large-Scaled Electricity Generation Systems Marco Pruckner, Reinhard German, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

Due to the transition towards a sustainable energy supply, many electricity generation systems are faced with great challenges worldwide. Highly volatile renewable energy sources play an important role in the future electricity generation mix and should help compensate the phase-out of nuclear power in countries such as Germany. Simulation-based energy system analysis can support the conversion into a sustainable future energy system and are intended to find risks and miscalculations. In this paper we present main components of the electricity generation system models. We use a hybrid simulation approach with system dynamics and discrete event modules. This modular design allows quick model adoptions for different scenarios. Simulation results show the development of the future annual electricity balance, CO2 emission balance, electricty imports and exports, and the wholesale price of electricity.
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Communication Modeling for a Combat Simulation in a Network Centric Warfare Environment Kyuhyeon Shin, Hochang Nam, Taesik Lee, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

Effective and efficient information sharing in a warfare environment is a key feature of the Network Centric Warfare (NCW) concept, and a combat simulation model should reflect this key feature. Most existing combat simulation models adopt a simplified communication model, which may lead to overestimating an actual level of communication performance. On the other hand, while providing accurate assessment of communication performance, a low-level, detailed, engineered model for communication tends to be overly sophisticated and computationally intensive to incorporate in typical combat models. In this paper, we propose a communication model in the context of an engagement-level of NCW combat simulation. In particular, we use a propagation loss model to determine a success or failure of individual communication attempts. We also define a set of model parameters to characterize various communication networks deployed in a battlefield. Preliminary simulation experiments and their results are presented to illustrate the proposed modeling framework
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Distortion of “Mental Maps” as an Exemplar of Imperfect Situation Awareness Victor Middleton, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

This paper provides the first results of dissertation research that seeks to develop and apply an experimental milieu for the study of imperfect Situation Awareness/Situation Understanding (SA/SU) and of decision-making based on that SA/SU. It describes an agent-based simulation and initial results of simulation experiments conducted with that framework. The simulation experiments explore a specific, easily understood, and quantifiable example of human behavior: intelligent agents being spatially “lost” while trying to navigate in a simulation world.
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A Modular Simulation Model For Assessing Interventions For Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Christoph Urach, Günther Zauner, Gottfried Endel, Ingrid Wilbacher, Felix Breitenecker, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

This paper discusses the development of an individual based simulation of interventions for better treatment of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). The interdisciplinary subject required collaboration of medical doctors, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) experts and modelers.
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